Environmental Carcinogens and Cancer Prevalence: A Geospatial Assessment of Industrial Zones

Abstract

ABSTRACT

Industrialisation in the Indian state of Gujarat has raised concern about exposure to environmental carcinogens and subsequent cancer risk. The current study explored the spatial distribution of pollutant concentrations and cancer incidence in three major industrial clusters: Vadodara, Ankleshwar, and Vapi. Pollutant measurements for PM2.5, benzene, arsenic, and lead were retrieved from government monitoring stations. Incidence data for cancer were collected from national and regional cancer registries. Spatial mapping and kernel density estimates were performed with ArcGIS and QGIS. Pearson correlation, OLS regression, and Geographically Weighted Regression were used to analyse statistical relationships, and spatial clustering was identified with Moran's I and LISA statistics. The Vapi Industrial Cluster recorded the highest levels of all pollutants, with PM2.5 being 92.1 µg/m³. Vapi also recorded the highest cancer incidence, particularly lung (193/100,000) and bladder (125/100,000) cancer. Regression analysis also showed significant positive correlations between PM2.5 and lung cancer (β = 0.51, p = 0.001) and benzene and lung cancer (β = 0.47, p = 0.002). Environmental carcinogen exposure from industrial releases exhibited a strong spatial association with cancer prevalence. The results call for the urgent need for targeted pollution control and health surveillance in industrial hotspots.