Seasonal Patterns of Vector-Borne Diseases in Response to Climate Variability

Abstract

The present study asks which elements of climate variability actually steer the seasonal rises and falls of vector-borne diseases. In simpler terms, when will Zika spike because rainfall hit a threshold, and can anyone model that pattern before the outbreak arrives? Spatio-temporal techniques borrowed from geography and epidemiology now let researchers mash decades of weather records together with clinic-confirmed case files, all while running hierarchical models that account for both space and time. Make-believe output from those exercises has already shown that a few extra degrees of midsummer heat-and the coincidence of high humidity and late rains-can flip the switch for malaria, dengue, even chikungunya. If the pattern holds, local health offices might build real-time alerts and plan field interventions long before a fresh wave of mosquitoes or infected humans gets out the door.