Resilience OF Red Chili Farming Amid Climate Variability: Risk Analysis AND Mitigation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change and climate variability pose significant challenges to agricultural sustainability, particularly for horticultural crops such as red chili, which are highly sensitive to fluctuations in temperature, rainfall, and wind. This study aims to analyze the impact of climate variability and climate change on red chili production in West Java, Indonesia, and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to strengthen agricultural resilience. Using historical climate data from 2014 to 2024—including temperature, rainfall, humidity, and wind speed—alongside production data (land area, yield, and related factors), the study applies mixed methods combining statistical analysis and farmer surveys.

The results indicate an average 20% decline in red chili production between 2019 and 2023, largely due to unstable rainfall patterns, temperature extremes, and shifts in wind speed. Farmers were found to be highly vulnerable to these climatic shocks, with limited access to adaptive technologies and resources. To address these challenges, the study proposes a set of strategies: the adoption of adaptive farming technologies such as drip irrigation and resilient varieties, crop diversification, continuous farmer capacity building, improved climate information systems, and stronger policy support.

The findings highlight the urgent need for integrated adaptation and mitigation approaches that combine technological, institutional, and policy measures. Recommendations include the development of more advanced agricultural technologies, wider market access for alternative crops, breeding of adaptive local varieties, and integration of climate information systems with mobile applications. A comprehensive approach encompassing technology, diversification, training, and supportive policies is expected to enhance the resilience of red chili farming and ensure sustainable production in the future.