Environmental Changes and Their Impact on The Value of Iraqi Plant Production for The Period (1990-2022)

Abstract

The study aims to assess the impact of environmental variables on agricultural production in the period 1990-2022. In order to estimate and analyze the parameters of the model, the most important tests used were to determine the order and integration of the variables, and to ensure the quality, stability and predictive power of the estimated model, Granger causality tests and analysis of variance components were performed. The first stage of the model analysis was carried out in two stages, namely (the environmental model), which included a dependent variable represented by agricultural output and a set of independent variables including forest area, industrial waste and environmental pollution, total greenhouse gas emissions and carbon dioxide emissions, in addition to the consumption rate of chemical fertilizers used on arable land. The second stage was the methodology of analyzing and estimating the parameters of the model, while the third stage was the stage of testing the model, in addition to using unit root tests for the study variables. The short-term relationship results in a negative and significant value of the random error correction factor (0. This value indicates the validity of the long-term equilibrium relationship, that is, it takes a year and three months for the imbalances of the environmental model to return to balance, and carbon emissions and the agricultural sector There is a significant inverse correlation between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural sector contribution to GDP at a significance level of a On the other hand, the results of the long-term relationship show that there is a direct and significant relationship between the area of forests and the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP at a significance level of less than 1%, that is, increasing the area of forests by (1%) increases the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP by (1.690%). There is also a direct and significant relationship between industrial waste and environmental pollution and the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP at a significance level of less than 1%, i.e. increasing industrial waste and environmental pollution by (1%) reduces the contribution of the agricultural sector to GDP by (1.228%). From the following, it can be concluded that the effect of environmental variables showed a significant change in the area variable and a positive effect on agricultural production in the short and long term, while environmental pollution is a variable that did not show a significant effect in the short term but its effect is not positive in the long term, while the effect of the global warming variable did not appear in the short and positive term, it can be concluded that the effect appeared. For gas dioxide, the variable showed a negative effect in the short term and no effect in the long term, and for chemical fertilizer consumption rates, a significant positive effect in the short term and no effect in the long term. The recommendations indicate the need to pay attention to the issue of weather monitoring and early warning of environmental variables through GIS remote sensing systems.