Geospatial Modeling of Wildfire Susceptibility in Coastal Mediterranean Region: A Case Study of El Marsa (Algeria)

Abstract

The coastal region of Chlef, in northwestern Algeria, is frequently impacted by wildfires, yet there remains a significant gap in the existing literature regarding this natural hazard. To address this issue, our study focused on El Marsa municipality in the province of Chlef, that suffered the most extensive forest loss between 2000 and 2023. By integrating Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with remote sensing data, the Hybrid Fire Index (HFI) was adopted. This model effectively synthesizes six variables, across three axes: vegetation, topography, and human activity. Using a multi-criteria weighted overlay analysis, we generated a high-resolution risk susceptibility map. The results indicate that 59.59% of the study area is located in zones of "medium," "high," and "very high" risk. These results underscore the urgent need for targeted fire management and localized prevention strategies along this vulnerable Mediterranean coastline.