Role of Food, Logistics and Energy to Trigger the Sustainable Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

This study investigates the role of key structural sectors in shaping sustainable economic growth in Saudi Arabia, with particular attention to the reform process associated with Vision 2030. Using annual data from 1990 to 2024, the analysis focuses on food security, food production, logistics performance, industrial development, energy intensity, and renewable energy consumption. A non-linear autoregressive distributed lag framework is employed to capture asymmetric long-run and short-run effects arising from positive and negative shocks, while allowing for structural breaks and mixed integration properties. The empirical strategy further distinguishes between pre- and post-Vision 2030 periods to assess whether recent reforms have altered growth dynamics. The results reveal the presence of stable long-run relationships across all model specifications and confirm pronounced nonlinear behavior in the underlying series. Post-Vision 2030 estimates indicate stronger responsiveness of sustainable economic growth to improvements in food systems, industrial activity, logistics efficiency, and renewable energy, alongside heightened penalties from adverse shocks. These findings suggest that structural reforms have enhanced the effectiveness of key growth drivers and increased the economy’s sensitivity to sectoral performance. The study contributes to the literature by providing sector-specific and policy-relevant evidence on how diversification, efficiency improvements, and energy transition interact to support a more resilient and sustainable growth trajectory in a resource-dependent economy.