Impact Of Climate Change On Rice Production: Empirical Evidence From India

Abstract

This research investigates both the long and short-run dynamics between rice production and climatic factors—namely maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures, along with rainfall—using time-series data spanning 1991 to 2023 in India. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing framework to assess co-integration, the results confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. The analysis reveals that rainfall exerts a significant influence on rice production: a 1 percent rise in rainfall is associated with a 1.58 percent increase in output, ceteris paribus. Considering the sensitivity of rice yields to temperature fluctuations and the growing risks posed by climate change, it is essential for agricultural researchers to focus on developing temperature-resilient rice varieties to sustain and enhance production levels.