Expert Insight-Based Modeling Of Non-Kinetic Strategic Deterrence Of Rare Earth Supply Disruption: A Simulation-Driven Systematic Framework

Abstract

This study is derived from the authors' structured responses to strategic interviews initiated by Dr. Daniel O'Connor, CEO of the Rare Earth Exchange. The first quantitative modeling framework for characterizing non-kinetic deterrence pathways is presented for strategic resource disruption scenarios. The framework consists of three modules: Security Critical Zone (SCZ), Strategic Signal Injection Function (SSIF), and Regime-Capability Response Migration Function (PCTF); and combines Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs), Segmented Functions (SFFs), Path Covariance Matrices (PCMs), and LSTM Time-Series Networks (LSTNs), in order to simulate the nonlinear suppression and evolution of the warfighting system under the injection of regime signals. The simulation results show that within a short lag window, the institutional deterrent signal can trigger the disintegrative fracture of the capability system, which exhibits significant tempo effects and path coupling characteristics. The model is cross-country adaptable and can be used with AI sand table for contextual and counterfactual reasoning, providing methodological tools and experimental basis for strategic resource competition governance and policy tempo design..