Impact Of Rainfall And Temperature Variability On Grain Cultivation In Hebron: An Econometric Time-Series Study

Abstract

Climate change poses a significant threat to cereal production in semi-arid, politically unstable regions such as Hebron Governorate, where the intersection of environmental stressors and occupation-related restrictions intensifies food insecurity. This study investigates the short- and long-term impacts of climatic factors specifically temperature and precipitation alongside cultivated area, energy consumption, and labor force participation on cereal crop yields in Hebron from 1971 to 2014. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach, which is suitable for datasets with mixed integration orders and limited observations, the analysis integrates data from the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics and historical meteorological records. Findings indicate a statistically significant cointegration relationship (F-statistic = 5.72, p < 0.01), with rising temperatures exerting a detrimental long-run effect on cereal yields (β = −0.41, p < 0.01), while expanded cultivated area was associated with yield increases (β = +0.58, p < 0.001). In the short term, precipitation variability and energy shortages negatively influenced production (ECM = −0.33, p < 0.05). These results underscore the vulnerability of Hebron’s cereal sector to climatic volatility and land-use limitations. Enhancing agricultural resilience in such contexts requires targeted policy measures, including the development of heat-tolerant crops and safeguarding farmer access to arable land.