"Intelligent Tourism Forecasting For Climate Change- A Hybrid Approach Using ARDL And LSTM Models"

Abstract

This study shows the association between tourist arrivals, rainfall, temperature, and tourist earnings in India using a time series analysis. This is a significant connection among the variables, with rainfall and temperature having a significant influence on tourist arrivals. This study reveals the optimum temperature range of tourist arrivals is 20-25°C, and the optimal rainfall range is between 50-100 mm per month. The inference of this study has significant suggestions for the service sector, and to inform policy decisions, strategies of marketing, and investment decisions that promote sustainable tourism development in India. The study uses a combination of statistical techniques, including unit root tests, cointegration tests, and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, to analysing data. The results gave important insights into the changing aspects of the tourism industry in India, and can be used to develop strategies that promote sustainable tourism development and diminish the negative effects of tourism.