Climate Change And Its Impact On Crop Yields In Northern India: A Temporal Analysis

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a major challenge to agricultural sustainability, particularly in regions like Northern India, where crop production is vital for food security and rural livelihoods. The rising temperatures, the unpredictability of rainfall, and the change of climatic zones are major threats to the productivity of major crops like rice, maize, and chickpea. The paper examines the sustained effect of climatic variability on crop production in the districts of Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh over the years 1966 to the latest year. The main aim is to assess the correlation between climatic variables and crop yield trends based on secondary data that provide temporal depth as well as spatial granularity. It used a thorough methodological approach, such as time series trend analysis, Pearson correlation, and multiple linear regression modelling. The findings show that temperature is significantly negative with yields, whereas rainfall and solar radiation are positively related. Analysis at the district level reveals significant spatial variation in crop performance, which means that local climatic and infrastructural conditions have a significant impact. The paper highlights the importance of secondary data collected over a long time to determine the essential trends and guide local agricultural policies. Such results have significant implications for the creation of climate-resilient agricultural systems. Future studies are encouraged to integrate machine learning and remote sensing tools into predictive modelling and adaptive planning.