Disaster Preparedness Leading to Positive Impacts on Economic Indicators

Abstract

The objective of the research is to measure the impacts of natural disaster in terms of no. of deaths, no. of disasters and economic damages on economic indicators like agricultural and forestry growth, industry including construction growth, migration, export etc. as percentage of GDP. As these indicators will depend upon, how the preparedness and mitigation measures are being taken.

A simulation model is constructed using ARDL (Auto Regressive Distributed Lag), VECM (Vector error correction model) and VAR (Vector Auto Regression) considering the impacts of natural disaster events like flood, cyclone, wild fire, etc. on economic indicators like agricultural and forestry growth, industry including construction growth, migration, export etc. as percentage of GDP.

Under the different scenarios, simulation results have been analysed and it is observed in over-all perspective that Implementing disaster preparedness and mitigation strategies can significantly reduce indirect economic losses caused by floods and cyclones, fostering economic resilience within communities.