Assessing The Environmental Outcomes of India’s Neighborhood First Policy in the Teesta River Dispute

Abstract

India’s “Neighborhood First” (NFP) policy, articulated since 2014, prioritizes constructive, non-reciprocal engagement with South Asian neighbors. Yet the Teesta River dispute with Bangladesh—centered on lean-season allocations, upstream hydropower and irrigation withdrawals, and downstream ecological stress—remains unresolved. This paper assesses the environmental outcomes associated with the NFP approach in the Teesta basin. It synthesizes evidence on changing cryospheric conditions in Sikkim and Darjeeling, hydrological variability and low-flow stress in northern Bangladesh, and risk highlighted by the October 2023 South Lhonak glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) that cascaded down the Teesta valley. It also evaluates recent geo-economic developments, including Bangladesh’s pursuit of a China-financed Teesta Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project, in light of NFP’s cooperative aims. While NFP has broadened India–Bangladesh connectivity and expanded problem-solving channels, the absence of a signed Teesta sharing treaty—despite a widely reported 2011 draft formula—has limited environmental gains downstream. We find mixed outcomes: incremental cooperation on disaster response and hydromet information, but persistent dry-season ecological stress and mounting flood risks due to climate change and infrastructure exposure. The paper concludes with options compatible with NFP: time-bound treaty finalization with ecological flow guarantees, a transboundary Teesta Basin Council, joint GLOF-to-delta risk management, and blended finance for sediment, bank, and floodplain restoration—aimed at aligning diplomatic intent with measurable environmental recovery.