Spatial Spillover Effects of Upper Secondary Education on Drug Trafficking in Riau Province, Indonesia: A Spatial Econometric Analysis

Abstract

This study examines the economic, social, and demographic factors that influence illicit drug trafficking in Riau Province, considering the spatial interactions between regions. Increased regional connectivity facilitates the movement of people, goods, and information, which impacts drug trafficking through direct and spillover effects. Using spatial modelling across 12 districts/cities from 2013 to 2022, we applied the SAR, SAC, SDM, and SLX models. The SLX model provided the best fit, based on an AIC value of 1188.154 and a BIC value of 1227.179. The findings show that unemployment directly increases drug trafficking, while poverty reduces it. In addition, high school education levels show a spillover effect on drug crime in the surrounding areas. The results emphasise the need for a coordinated and cross-regional approach to drug prevention, focusing on education, job creation, and inter-regional law enforcement cooperation.