Analysing Export Volatility And Trade Patterns In India’s Fresh Grape Sector: A Markov Chain-Based Assessment

Abstract

This research undertakes a comprehensive analysis of India’s fresh grape export trends and trade structure over the period 1987 to 2024, utilizing a combination of econometric and probabilistic methodologies. Specifically, the study applies linear trend estimation for performance evaluation, to quantify instability in trade, the Cuddy-Della Valle index, and Markov chain modelling is used to examine the directional shifts in export destinations over time. Recognizing India's prominent role in global grape production, the research aims to assess long-term trends, identify trade instability, and forecast export direction. The analysis is structured into decadal periods to evaluate changes in export quantity and value across major importing countries. Linear regression results highlight strong positive trends in export volume, while the instability index reveals significant volatility in export value, reflecting sensitivity to globa l market fluctuations. The Transition Probability Matrix (TPM) generated through Markov Chain modelling reveals that countries like the Netherlands, Russia, and the United Kingdom demonstrated strong market persistence with a stable and consistent demand, indicating stable trade relationships over the study period. These findings, with the integration of stochastic modelling, offer valuable actionable insights for policymakers, exporters, and stakeholders to refine export strategies, stabilize trade earnings, and enhance India’s position in the international horticultural market and ensure long-term sustainability in India’s horticultural export sector.