Econometric Analysis Of Natural Rubber Prices In Kerala

Abstract

To facilitate informed and timely decision-making, volatility models offer investors, traders, and policymakers crucial insights by enabling accurate price forecasts. This study explores the volatility behaviour of Natural Rubber prices RSS 4 and RSS 5 in Kerala. It utilises secondary time series data from the Historical Data of the Statistics & Planning Department, Rubber Board, Kerala. The analysis employs a combination of Time Series Plot, Unit Root Test, GARCH (1,1) and GARCH (2,1) models to assess volatility from April 2016 to April 2025. Key findings reveal stationarity in the Natural Rubber prices RSS 4 and RSS 5 in Kerala. However, the GARCH (1,1) and GARCH (2,1) models indicate the absence of volatility in Natural Rubber prices RSS 4 and RSS 5 during the study period.