Growth trend and Instability Analysis of Autumn Rice Cultivation in Assam

Abstract

Rice occupies 71.87 percent of gross crop area and 92.4 percent of total area under food grains cultivation in Assam. This paper examines the trend in growth rate of area, production and productivity of Autumn Rice in Assam based on the latest secondary data for the period of 1990-91 to 2021-22, published by Director of Economics and Statistics, Assam. Annual growth rate, Annual Average Growth Rate and Compound Annual Growth Rate have been estimated to analyse the growth rate of area, production and productivity over the years. Various models such as Linear, Logarithmic, Inverse, Quadratic, Compound, Cubic, S-Curve etc. are used to determine the best fit model for assessing the growth trends. It also examines the instability of Area, Production and Productivity of Autumn Rice using the Coefficient of Variation and Cuddy Della Valle Instability Index. The result indicates a decreasing trend in the growth of area and production and an increasing trend in productivity over the years. This study will help the crop growers and policy makers to take targeted intervention for improvement of Autumn Rice cultivation in Assam.