Impact Of Early Diagnosis On Survival Rates In Pancreatic Cancer Patients In Jordan

Abstract

Background:Pancreatic cancer (PC) remains one of the deadliest malignancies globally, with poor survival rates largely due to late-stage diagnosis and limited therapeutic options. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of early diagnosis on survival outcomes among PC patients in Jordan.

Methods:We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 6,924 patients diagnosed with pancreatic adenocarcinoma between 2011 and 2020, using linked national data from the Jordan Cancer Registry, Ministry of Health systems, King Hussein Cancer Center, and vital statistics. Patients were stratified by stage at diagnosis: early (AJCC I–II) versus late (III–IV). Primary outcome was overall survival (OS); secondary outcomes included treatment type and survival at 1 and 5 years. Survival differences were assessed using inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) to control for confounders including demographics, comorbidities, and lifestyle factors. Weighted Kaplan-Meier estimators and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated.

Results:Only 18.6% of patients were diagnosed at an early stage. Early-stage patients were younger, had fewer comorbidities, and more frequently underwent curative surgery (76.5%) and adjuvant therapy (55.3%). Median survival was highest among patients receiving curative surgery (28.7 months), with adjusted survival reaching 30.2 months after IPTW. Late-stage patients had significantly worse outcomes (HR for death: 2.76), particularly those without oncologic treatment (HR: 6.79).

Conclusion: Early diagnosis of PC in Jordan is associated with significantly improved survival, largely driven by access to curative-intent surgery. These findings emphasize the need for system-wide strategies focused on earlier detection and timely treatment to improve outcomes in pancreatic cancer care.