Communication And Predictive Modeling to Bridge Climate Knowledge Gaps In Aquaculture

Abstract

Global warming and its influence on climate systems have emerged as critical threats to environmental stability and global development. As highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the increasing dependence on carbon-based economies has significantly accelerated climate change. By the end of the 21st century, global temperatures are projected to rise between 1.8°C and 6.0°C, with tropical deltaic areas facing particularly severe consequences. Such regions, which serve as major centres for aquaculture, are highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, saltwater intrusion, and declining freshwater availability. In tropical zones, aquaculture systems such as inland cage cultures may experience disruptions due to extreme weather events, reduced water quality, and seasonal imbalances, leading to oxygen depletion, fish mortality, and reduced production. This study examines how climate change affects aquaculture systems, particularly small-scale farmers, and explores adaptive strategies to enhance resilience. A delay differential equation–based mathematical model is developed to simulate the time-lagged effects of temperature, salinity, and feeding strategies on fish biomass, providing insights into adaptive and cost-effective management. Beyond technology, the study underscores the importance of communication strategies, including mass media outreach, participatory platforms, and targeted awareness campaigns, to bridge knowledge gaps, re-engage youth, and promote climate-smart aquaculture practices. By combining predictive modelling with traditional ecological knowledge and effective communication networks, the study offers a pathway towards climate-resilient, socially inclusive, and sustainable aquaculture systems aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals.