Assessment Of Risks And Vulnerabilities Related To Climate Change On Water Resource Availability And Forms Of Adaptation In The Wilaya Of Constantine, (Algeria)

Abstract

Faced with the worsening impacts of climate change, the wilaya of Constantine, located in a semi-arid zone, presents a marked vulnerability in terms of water resource management. This study uses simulations from the RCA4 regional climate model to assess the effects of climate change on local water availability. It adopts an integrated territorial approach, combining climate data, socio-economic dynamics and institutional frameworks. The results reveal an increase in temperatures (>1 °C), a reduction in precipitation (509 mm/year) and an intensification of evaporation over a period of 51 years. Analysis of the SPI and RDI indices highlights an increase in moderate to severe droughts, particularly in 1983 (SPI ≈ -2.1), 2005 (-2.0) and 2021 (-1.7), reflecting strong interannual variability since the 2000s. These findings call for an urgent reconfiguration of water planning in order to strengthen territorial resilience in a Mediterranean context subject to increasing climatic pressures.