Novel Fuzzy Optimization Model of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Al-Hilla River, Babylon, Iraq

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate the impacts of future climate change scenarios on the water quality and streamflow of the Al-Hilla River. By simulating various climatic conditions, the research seeks to quantify the degradation of water quality due to rising temperatures and reduced river flows, and to provide insights for effective water management strategies. A comprehensive water quality simulation model was employed to analyze the reactions of crucial indicators of water quality to anticipated scenarios of climate change. The model incorporated variations in temperature, precipitation, and streamflow for three future periods: 2021-2030, 2031-2040, and 2041-2050. Parameters assessed included temperature, dissolved oxygen, total dissolved solids (TDS), biological oxygen demand (BOD), total hardness (TH), pH, and others. Future scenarios were derived from historical data, and the model was calibrated and validated to ensure accuracy. The results indicate a significant rise in mean temperatures and a decrease in precipitation, leading to reduced river flow and deteriorated water quality. Specifically, average annual temperatures are projected to increase by up to 6.8°C by 2041-2050, while precipitation may drop by up to 59.2%. Streamflow is expected to decline by 52% to 66%, with associated increases in dissolved solids, BOD, and total hardness. The Water Quality Index (WQI) is projected to decline from "Good" to "Poor" by the end of the century. The study's limitations include the reliance on projected climate data and assumptions inherent in the simulation model. The results are significant They point to the importance of quick action for stakeholders and governments engaged in protecting the environment and water management in order to ensure sustainable water supplies.