Logistic Regression Analysis Of Risk Factors Associated With The Emer-gence And Spread Of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Ah5n1) In Poultry Farms In Latacunga Canton, Cotopaxi Province – Agrocalidad

Abstract

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4b has become one of the most significant threats to global poultry health. This study identifies risk factors associated with its presence in commercial poultry farms in the Latacunga canton, Ecuador, through the evaluation of 55 variables grouped into four key categories: Sanitary Management, Environmental Control, Operational Biosecurity, and Administrative Records. Supervised statistical models were applied—Logistic Regression, Decision Tree, SVM, XGBoost, and PCA—to assess outbreak probability. Logistic Regression achieved 100% accuracy, standing out for its explanatory power and ease of interpretation. Critical variables included proximity to other farms, year of sanitary inspection, production capacity, and the existence of systematic records. The multivariate analysis revealed that the combination of structural, operational, and documentary factors plays a decisive role in the occurrence of infection clusters. This predictive approach provides a practical tool for strengthening epidemiological surveillance and sanitary decision-making in high-risk environments, with potential for replication in other vulnerable poultry production regions.