Algeria’s Energy Transition: A Critical Assessment For A Sustainable Future

Abstract

Algeria faces a critical energy crossroads as its hydrocarbon-dependent economy struggles with rising domestic consumption, declining export capacity and climate commitments. This study analyzes energy trends from 2013-2024, revealing a worrying 42.2% surge in national consumption against only 12% production growth, with energy losses jumping 11.5% in 2023. The exportable surplus has shrunk by 10 Mtoe since 2016, while fossil fuels still dominate 99.5% of the energy mix. The proposed transition strategy addresses these challenges through eight integrated pillars: combating energy waste (targeting 6 Mtoe annual savings), rebalancing consumption toward productive sectors, converting 200 000 vehicles to LPG/CNG, developing electric mobility infrastructure, improving building efficiency, achieving 30% renewable energy by 2030, implementing targeted subsidy reforms, and modernizing agricultural/industrial sectors. Key findings highlight systemic inefficiencies costing $1.8 billion annually in losses, with current consumption trends risking reserve depletion within 20 years. The transition's success depends on overcoming governance challenges, realizing $200 million/year in gas savings through renewable projects, and fostering behavioral change. This research provides policymakers with actionable recommendations to navigate Algeria's energy trilemma-preserving vital export revenues while meeting growing domestic demand and climate obligations through a structured, socially-just transition pathway that leverages the country's significant solar potential and emphasizes energy sobriety as a national priority.