Climatic Trends In The Hathmati River Basin, Gujarat, India: A Study On Temperature And Precipitation

Abstract

Climate variability, especially shifts in temperature and precipitation patterns, poses significant global challenges, particularly for agriculture and water resources. In India, where a major share of agricultural activity is rain-dependent, understanding such fluctuations is essential for planning and sustainability. This study investigates long-term changes in monsoon rainfall and temperature in the Hathmati River Basin, located in Gujarat, over 43 years from 1981 to 2023. Using robust statistical techniques, namely the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator, we analyzed historical datasets of monthly and annual rainfall and temperature. The findings revealed considerable inter-annual variability in rainfall, with coefficients of variation ranging from 42.11% to 316.35% across different months. In contrast, temperature showed much lower variability: the coefficient of variation for maximum temperatures ranged from 2.63% to 7.82%, while minimum temperatures varied from 2.33% to 9.80%. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed in September rainfall and the annual minimum temperature, suggesting a potential shift in climatic patterns in the region. These results highlight the critical need for continuous climatic monitoring and data-driven policy interventions. Effective climate adaptation and sustainable water management strategies are imperative to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change in the Hathmati Basin. Therefore, the outcomes of this research can assist policymakers, agricultural planners, and water resource managers in developing adaptive strategies that enhance food security and strengthen economic resilience in the face of climate variability.