India - China: A Performance Comparison Over the Reform Period 1991-2021

Abstract

The Indian and Chinese relationship has evolved over thousands of years, from a spiritual connection to closely linked colonial (mis)fortunes to a modern-day rivalry. The rivalry manifests not only in the border disputes but also in economic growth (trade, development, military spending) as well as in soft power extension (cultural influence across the world, global diaspora, diplomacy, sports). While India and China were considered almost at par till about the 1980s, the economic liberalization shaped their paths significantly differently, where the Chinese growth miracle of 30 years has left India far behind on almost every major parameter of global significance. While India has started catching up steadily since 2014-15, there are still a generation's worth of reforms lying ahead of India to catch up credibly with China. Meanwhile, it would not be unfair to assume that the Chinese performance remains uncheckered. In this paper, we compare the performance of India and China across 3 types of parameters: macroeconomic variables, international trade, and human development. The period of comparison is approximately 1991 to 2021 or the closest available year. The objective of this comparison is to understand the past and draw relevant insights for the future.